The Real Estate Maven: 2016

Tips on How to Prepare Your Home for Holiday Guests
Is your home ready for holiday visits from friends and family? Here’s how to prepare for the invasion. Read

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Sunday, October 16, 2016

I'll be spending this rainy afternoon nestled in the trees in this beautifully remodeled Montclair home. 2+ bedrooms, 2 baths, $799k. Come say hi and have some hot apple cider. 6635 Longwalk, Oakland (off the top of Ascot)

http://ift.tt/1O7ELnz

Monday, October 10, 2016

Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble... But Not in Our Market

We hear talk of bubbles, especially during increasing markets, but we don't typically know what to look for beyond high prices and a feeding frenzy of buying.

Bubbles expand, blowing larger and over-inflating the market; we are in more of a constriction as available inventory remains at near-historic lows. That's not to say these prices will continue their current trajectory, but more on that later.

A component of real estate bubbles beyond lack of supply for high demand is speculative buying and building. Sure there are people flipping houses again and yes, that is considered speculative, but at these prices there's not nearly the number of flippers out there that there were a decade ago. People are paying high prices as they look toward living in their new home "forever" (which tends to be around 10-15 years, depending on the growth of the market and their family size). On the side of speculative building, we're not seeing that in the Bay Area. There are few, if any, builders betting on the Field of Dreams, "if I build it, they will come" philosophy. Instead we're seeing building in response to demand for housing from incoming jobs, and thus new residents needing somewhere to live. And even still, the builds are slow going as cities negotiate percentages of affordable housing with developers.

The chief economist at Realtor.com put together a list of six factors he used to create a "bubble index" which he then used to create the graph below comparing how this index measured up in 2005 in cities around the country compared to today. The six factors are: price appreciation, the prevalence of house flipping, the share of buyers financing their purchases versus paying cash, price to income ratios, price to rent ratios, and housing starts to housing formation numbers.

Based on the graph above, there are some cities that are pretty close to bubble territory, if not deeper into it than they were in 2005, however you can see that San Francisco and San Jose have a ways to go. Still, that doesn't mean we will continue to realize the kind of gains we have in recent years (17% since 2012 in Oakland alone).

The steady average increase of 5% year over year is not likely to continue forever, though it's doubtful we'll experience a crash like we felt in 2007-2009 which resulted in a 30% dip in values. No, instead it's more likely that we'll see a gentle slowing, more of a plateau than a real dip. In fact, San Francisco's condo and loft market began to feel a slowing down earlier this year with more price reductions and longer time on the market.

Curious what you can keep an eye in our Bay Area market? In addition to the aforementioned speculative building, my eye is on the tech money. Anecdotally I've heard there are big tech companies opting to scrap the ESOPs and other stock based incentives and instead pay their employees the cash value of those options. Talk about a cash infusion in the market! I'm also eying the not-so-elusive unicorns, companies with a valuation of $1B or more. They are not as rare as they once were and according to techworld.com, between 2000-2003 it took 8.5 years for a company to become a unicorn; between 2009-2013 we're down to 2.9 years on average. Unicorns are dying too as investor confidence softens or user numbers dwindle. Tech is big money in the Bay Area. We are lucky to be home to so many giants with solid future growth securing the livelihoods of their employees, but not everyone can be a Google, Apple, Intel, or Facebook.

If you've been thinking about selling, this is a great time to begin planting seeds. No one has a crystal ball and though it doesn't look like a bubble, we could be hitting a plateau in prices. Get the most you can out of your investment now and time your purchase plan well by moving swiftly and smartly. Call me to learn how to reap your largest benefits.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

I don't tend to travel out of my area to sell properties, but for a good friend I'll take the hit of spending a day showing property at the #russianriver. #itsahardlife #riverfront #monterio #vacationhouse #beautifulhome #realestate #realtor #sothebys #shannonkelly #shannonkellyhomes

via Instagram @shannonkellyhomes http://ift.tt/2cAs0YY

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Open House Lists: Labor Day Weekend Edition

Click the image below to view & download this weekend's open house lists

Friday, September 2, 2016

Sounding Off in the San Francisco Chronicle

This weekend's Sound Off asks what are the pros and cons of earthquake insurance. Here's a peek of what I had to say before you can read it on SFGate or in the Sunday paper...

The largest benefit of earthquake insurance is peace of mind. The primary function of earthquake insurance is to put a roof back over your head, not to replace all that you lost. Typically the coverage for personal property is low, though it can be increased. If your home is damaged beyond habitability, you can be covered for additional living expenses like a rental home, hotel, meals, temporary storage, even the cost of doing laundry while your home is being rebuilt or repaired. You can rest assured that you will not be homeless if an earthquake shakes your home to the ground. But for the typically high premiums and deductibles you’ll pay for that peace of mind, you will not be covered for fire (your regular insurance covers fires, even those resulting from an earthquake); damage to your land isn’t covered (think erosion, cracks in the earth, or sinkholes), your vehicles aren’t covered by earthquake insurance (check your auto insurance for coverage), nor is water damage from outside your home (think sewer or drain backup or a flood). Can you put a price tag on your peace of mind? Do your own research to determine how the pros and cons weigh out for you, and remember to check your existing coverages to see if your largest concerns may already be covered.

edit: SFGate direct link

Friday, July 29, 2016

Silicon Valley Elites Get Home Loans With No Money Down

I can't help but hear whispers of the past warning of repetition. The lenders are saying they know the history, and so are not doomed to repeat it, "...those that have gotten loans have an average FICO score of 747 and average household income of $219,000, says Rebecca Reynolds Lytle, chief lending officer. 'We are vetting our borrowers to make sure they can afford it and have reserves.' But in the end 'it’s a loan -- it’s not going to be risk free.'"

I'm taking the "wait and see" approach, and reminding you that the real estate market is cyclical. If you buy with the ability to hold and you'll always come out ahead, but buy with a wish and a prayer, and that may be all you'll have in the end.

Read full article

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

How much did that house sell for? (July 19th - 25th)

With school beginning earlier, it seems summer vacations have been rescheduled from August to June and July, causing an earlier summer slowdown in the market. But what we've been watching has shown itself to be temporary as desirable homes continue to receive very strong interest and multiple offers. Have you been thinking about selling your house? Buyers are out in droves, could yours be the house to set a new high-price in your neighborhood?

Click here for downloadable pdf